此贴转载自真相道白，在此表达感谢。
亲爱的投资者，
黄金与白银近期的暴跌可能吓坏了不少买家，特别是那些刚刚入市不久的新手。我个人投资贵金属市场已长达十年之久，就我个人来看，由于这个市场本身就充满波动，出现当前的状况其实并不意外。根据我以往的经验，这种暴跌更多彰显的是机遇，而不是危险。
如果您目前与欧洲太平洋资本公司的经纪人有联系，可以和他们探讨适合您的方案，包括取得澳大利亚珀斯铸币厂(Perth Mint)金银证书等问题。请访问我们的网站，或直接致电我们的珀斯铸币厂分部：800-993-8350。
有句古话说得好：“市场走着楼梯上去，坐着电梯下来”。而这回在贵金属市场发生的，甚至都不是坐电梯了，而是直接坠楼。不过这种“大落”正是牛市的特征之一。毫无疑问，此轮暴跌会把那些使用杠杆的投机者、缺乏主见且随波逐流的人震出局。不确定性刚一体现，许多意志力不够坚定的投资者便缴械投降，从而引发更大的波动。
这是一种反应过度、无视大局的情绪。该情绪由美联储主席伯南克于上周点燃，他承认华盛顿的凯恩斯主义政策遭遇了失败。尽管增加了万亿美元赤字、美元大幅贬值，但经济前景依旧一团灰暗。于是，这回他宣布了另一种刺激举措——扭转操作（Operation Twist）。了解到伯南克内心的沮丧之后，投资者开始出脱金银等“风险资产”。但是，当初我们购买贵金属的原因，却正是基于伯南克所谓的刺激。
尽管美联储小心翼翼，在措辞上尽可能避免将扭转操作描述为新的刺激，但本质上它仍然是刺激。这是他们在上世纪60年代就已使用过的、最终失败的政策。我确信这次同样会失败。虽然这回没有创造新钱来继续扩张资产负债表，但美联储依然试图用压低长期利率的手段鼓励借贷。就当前来看，这个方法让市场重建了一丝信心，但我不认为它会长久。当该政策再次失效的时候，新一轮“量化宽松”就会出笼。
就目前来看，“羊群效应”的本能正占据上风，许多人做出了糟糕的决定。他们赌美联储会负责任地关掉信贷龙头，迫使投资者“由进攻转为防守”。近期股市大跌，不少人可能为筹集保证金，被迫对他们赚钱的金银仓位进行获利了结。
我确信他们在犯错，就和2008年一样。美国经济正笼罩在萧条的阴霾之下，这是现实。美联储和美国政府唯一能做的，就是用印钞票和消费来掩盖问题。如果经济不能复苏，那么更多的银行就会倒闭。为避免再做一轮恶名昭彰的“银行救助运动”（或许命名为TARPII，即垃圾资产抒困计划2），美联储更有可能两害相权取其轻，推出QE3。如果我没有错，那么黄金与白银前景光明。
贵金属在2011年的快速上涨，让很多人扼腕叹息，后悔没能赶上这趟列车。而现在这趟列车正停下来等你，甚至倒退了一段距离。不过我相信它不会等你等得太久。
请不要忘记，黄金的短暂下跌是因为美元在回光返照。现在，很多人是由于对灰暗的经济前景感到“吃惊”而买入美元。这些人当初购买“风险资产”的原因，是相信美国和全球经济正在复苏。如今他们发现自己“错了”，于是进行逆向操作。他们错误地判断了经济复苏，依我之见，也错误地理解着美元和黄金。
在我看来，孱弱的美国经济相比健康的美国经济，对黄金更为有利。因为在经济糟糕的状况下，美联储更有可能大量印钱。我相信，未来的经济衰退一定发生在通胀，而非通缩的大背景下。黄金和白银传统上是抗击通胀最有效的利器。
不难判断，当前的价格调整正是购买实物金条的良机。但千万不要落入杠杆操作的圈套，以及其他一些黄金销售陷阱（识破更多黄金销售骗局，请点击这里阅读彼得·希夫的最新报告）。
如果您正在寻求能长期保护自己资产的手段，现在便是出手的时机。如果你相信纸币终究不可信赖、经济决策者仍将继续犯错，那就不要因试图“寻找底部”而再次错失良机。
我们将帮助您购买第一桶金，或增加已有的仓位。
谨启
彼得·希夫
（欧洲太平洋资本公司CEO兼全球经济策略首席分析师）
原文：
Dear Investor,
The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices may be panicking buyers, especially those who are new to the market. However, I have been actively accumulating precious metals for more than a decade, and from my perspective, given the volatile nature of metals, this type of action is par for the course. In my experience, every sharp decline has shown itself to be an opportunity rather than a warning.
If you currently have a relationship with a Euro Pacific broker call him to discuss your options, including gold and silver certificates from the Perth Mint of Australia. Visit our website or call our Perth Mint department directly at 800-993-8350.
There is an old expression that markets take the stairs up but the elevator down. In this case, it seems precious metals missed the elevator completely and just fell down the shaft. But this type of sharp decline can be characteristic of a bull market. However, these drops tend to shake out the leveraged speculators and those who have jumped reluctantly on the bandwagon. At the first whiff of uncertainty, these uncommitted investors throw in the towel, leading to increased volatility.
This kind of sentiment tends to be overly emotional and misses the big picture. This latest gold sell off was sparked by Fed Chairman Bernanke's admission last week that Washington's Keynesian stimulus has failed. He admitted that despite trillion-dollar deficits and a gross devaluation of the dollar, the economic picture remains bleak. As such, he outlined the Fed's "Operation Twist" his latest stimulus effort. Taking the Chairman's distress to heart, investors dumped "risk assets" like gold and silver. But stimulus is the very reason why we have been buying precious metals in the first place.
While the Fed has been careful to avoid describing the Twist as new stimulus, this is exactly what it is. It is a policy that was first tried, and failed, in the early '60s. I'm sure that it will fail again. Instead of expanding the Fed's balance sheet with fresh money printing, it tries to encourage more borrowing and lending by lowering long term interest rates. Right now, the move has restored confidence. But I don't believe that it can last. When it fails, more quantitative easing will be unleashed.
In the meantime herd instincts seem to have taken over and many people are making bad decisions. They're betting that the Fed has turned off the monetary spigot for good, forcing investors to "get defensive." Losses from the recent broad stock market sell-off are likely generating margin calls, and many investors may be taking profits from their gold and silver investments to cover.
It's my belief that they are as wrong now as they were when this happened back in 2008. The reality is that the US economy is most likely in the midst of a depression. I believe the Fed and the Administration are going to do whatever it takes to mask that fact - and their only tools are spending and printing. If the economy fails to revive, I believe many more banks will start failing. To prevent another highly unpopular round of bank bailouts (possibly termed TARP II), the Fed will likely launch its next round of quantitative easing (QE III). If I'm correct, the prospects for gold and silver should be bright.
Given the gains we have seen thus far in 2011, many people may have felt this bull market had gotten ahead of them. They may be lamenting a train that had left the station. Well, perhaps the train just stopped, and even backed up a bit. I don't expect it to idle for long.
Remember gold is, in my view, temporarily losing its luster because the dollar is temporarily regaining some of its shine. But those buying dollars now are those who were surprised by the renewed weakness in the U.S. economy. They had previously sold their dollars to buy "riskier" assets that they thought would perform well as the U.S. and global economies recovered. As they concede their mistake, they are reversing those trades. They were wrong about the recovery and I think they are just as wrong about the dollar and gold.
It's my opinion that a weakening U.S. economy is far more bullish for precious metals than a strengthening one. That is because the Fed is more likely to print money, and in larger quantities, when the economy is weak than when it is strong. And so, I'm convinced that the economy will slow against a backdrop of inflation rather than deflation. Gold and silver are traditionally the best hedges against inflation.
Viewed through this perspective, the current correction can be an opportunity to buy physical bullion. But don't be cajoled into leveraged accounts or other gold sales rip-offs. (For more on common gold scams and rip-offs, CLICK HERE to read Peter's recent report.*)
But if you're looking to help protect your assets for the long-term, now may be the time. If you believe in the unreliability of paper money and the cluelessness of our economic leaders, don't get caught in the game of trying to find the lowest possible price.
We look forward to helping you make your first purchase or add to an existing position.
Sincerely,
Peter Schiff
CEO and Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital
No comments:
Post a Comment